Monte Carlo · 10,000 simulations
World Cup 2026
Predictions
48 teams · 12 groups · Dixon-Coles Poisson model + Elo ratings
USA · Canada · Mexico | June 11 – July 19, 2026
Championship Odds
1 
Argentina J 23.1%
Argentina J 23.1% F 32.0% SF 45.3% QF 59.7%
2 
Japan F 9.4%
Japan F 9.4% F 16.6% SF 27.8% QF 44.1%
3 
Spain H 6.7%
Spain H 6.7% F 12.8% SF 22.5% QF 35.5%
4 
England L 6.5%
England L 6.5% F 11.7% SF 22.9% QF 41.6%
5 
Portugal K 4.5%
Portugal K 4.5% F 9.4% SF 18.5% QF 36.1%
6 
Switzerland B 4.2%
Switzerland B 4.2% F 9.0% SF 18.3% QF 38.5%
7 
Norway I 4.2%
Norway I 4.2% F 8.7% SF 16.8% QF 30.7%
8 
Germany E 4.2%
Germany E 4.2% F 9.0% SF 18.4% QF 33.3%
9 
Belgium G 4.0%
Belgium G 4.0% F 9.2% SF 18.5% QF 36.7%
10 
Ecuador E 3.9%
Ecuador E 3.9% F 8.0% SF 15.9% QF 29.2%
11 
Netherlands F 3.4%
Netherlands F 3.4% F 7.3% SF 15.4% QF 29.8%
12 
France I 3.3%
France I 3.3% F 7.8% SF 15.4% QF 29.0%
13 
Brazil C 3.0%
Brazil C 3.0% F 6.9% SF 14.8% QF 27.8%
14 
Morocco C 2.9%
Morocco C 2.9% F 6.3% SF 13.0% QF 25.9%
15 
Colombia K 2.5%
Colombia K 2.5% F 6.1% SF 12.7% QF 28.0%
16 
Mexico A 2.4%
Mexico A 2.4% F 5.8% SF 13.2% QF 29.3%
17 
Algeria J 1.7%
Algeria J 1.7% F 4.0% SF 9.3% QF 20.2%
18 
Austria J 1.6%
Austria J 1.6% F 3.9% SF 9.3% QF 20.0%
19 
Paraguay D 1.5%
Paraguay D 1.5% F 4.1% SF 9.2% QF 20.6%
20 
Canada B 1.2%
Canada B 1.2% F 3.4% SF 8.8% QF 22.4%
Group Stage
Group A
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 99.1% | 61.1% | 29.3% | 13.2% | 2.4% |
 South Africa | 24.4% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
 South Korea | 74.0% | 28.2% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
 Czechia | 69.0% | 23.1% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
Group B
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 93.7% | 54.2% | 22.4% | 8.8% | 1.2% |
 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 70.1% | 20.4% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
 Qatar | 6.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Switzerland | 99.2% | 71.0% | 38.5% | 18.3% | 4.2% |
Group C
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 94.8% | 48.6% | 27.8% | 14.8% | 3.0% |
| Morocco | 88.1% | 45.1% | 25.9% | 13.0% | 2.9% |
 Haiti | 14.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
 Scotland | 75.8% | 26.6% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
Group D
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 USA | 44.6% | 16.8% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Paraguay | 79.6% | 45.5% | 20.6% | 9.2% | 1.5% |
 Australia | 69.4% | 34.9% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 0.6% |
 Turkey | 80.7% | 46.6% | 20.8% | 8.6% | 1.2% |
Group E
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 98.0% | 60.0% | 33.3% | 18.4% | 4.2% |
 Curacao | 4.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
 Ivory Coast | 81.8% | 31.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Ecuador | 93.4% | 54.1% | 29.2% | 15.9% | 3.9% |
Group F
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 92.4% | 50.3% | 29.8% | 15.4% | 3.4% |
| Japan | 95.9% | 64.0% | 44.1% | 27.8% | 9.4% |
 Sweden | 49.9% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
 Tunisia | 25.8% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Group G
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 95.8% | 64.1% | 36.7% | 18.5% | 4.0% |
 Egypt | 65.3% | 24.0% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
 Iran | 74.7% | 31.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
 New Zealand | 27.6% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Group H
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99.2% | 55.2% | 35.5% | 22.5% | 6.7% |
 Cape Verde | 22.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
 Saudi Arabia | 43.0% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
 Uruguay | 88.6% | 30.8% | 14.8% | 6.1% | 1.0% |
Group I
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 89.7% | 55.2% | 29.0% | 15.4% | 3.3% |
 Senegal | 67.0% | 28.5% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
 Iraq | 20.1% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Norway | 90.7% | 55.9% | 30.7% | 16.8% | 4.2% |
Group J
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 97.9% | 74.8% | 59.7% | 45.3% | 23.1% |
| Algeria | 80.6% | 38.4% | 20.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% |
| Austria | 80.2% | 38.1% | 20.0% | 9.3% | 1.6% |
 Jordan | 14.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Group K
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 90.7% | 65.0% | 36.1% | 18.5% | 4.5% |
 DR Congo | 50.8% | 19.6% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
 Uzbekistan | 34.8% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Colombia | 86.8% | 56.5% | 28.0% | 12.7% | 2.5% |
Group L
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 97.2% | 67.7% | 41.6% | 22.9% | 6.5% |
 Croatia | 89.4% | 43.4% | 17.2% | 6.4% | 0.7% |
 Ghana | 41.7% | 8.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
 Panama | 31.9% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Knockout Bracket
Predicted matchups across all knockout rounds, with next-round previews. Derived from Monte Carlo group-stage simulation.
Round of 32
R32_01
Germany 37.7% Ivory Coast 62.3% R32_02
Norway 67.3% Ivory Coast 32.7% R16
Germany Norway R32_03
South Korea 39.6% Canada 60.4% R32_04
Japan 58.5% Morocco 41.5% R16
Canada Japan R32_05
Colombia 58.1% Croatia 41.9% R32_06
Spain 59.2% Algeria 40.8% R16
Colombia Spain R32_07
Turkey 61.2% Ivory Coast 38.8% R32_08
Belgium 73.4% Bosnia and Herzegovina 26.6% R16
Turkey Belgium R16
Brazil Ecuador R32_09
Brazil 50.4% Netherlands 49.6% R32_10
Ecuador 49.4% France 50.6% R16
Mexico England R32_11
Mexico 70.1% Bosnia and Herzegovina 29.9% R32_12
England 75.7% Bosnia and Herzegovina 24.3% R16
Argentina Paraguay R32_13
Argentina 71.9% Uruguay 28.1% R32_14
Paraguay 58.4% Iran 41.6% R16
Switzerland Portugal R32_15
Switzerland 53.0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 47.0% R32_16
Portugal 75.9% Sweden 24.1% Round of 16
R16_01
Germany 50.6% Norway 49.4% R16_02
Canada 34.3% Japan 65.7% QF
Germany Japan R16_03
Colombia 39.4% Spain 60.6% R16_04
Turkey 46.6% Belgium 53.4% QF
Spain Belgium QF
Brazil England R16_05
Brazil 50.4% Ecuador 49.6% R16_06
Mexico 42.8% England 57.2% QF
Argentina Switzerland R16_07
Argentina 69.2% Paraguay 30.8% R16_08
Switzerland 49.2% Portugal 50.8% Quarterfinals
QF_01
Germany 45.8% Japan 54.2% QF_02
Spain 56.8% Belgium 43.2% SF
Japan Spain SF
England Argentina QF_03
Brazil 52.7% England 47.3% QF_04
Argentina 62.7% Switzerland 37.3% Semifinals & Final
SF 1
Japan 52.9% Spain 47.1% 🏆 Final
Japan 45.7% Argentina 54.3% SF 2
England 41.3% Argentina 58.7% Predicted Top Scorers
| # | Player | Team | Exp. Goals | Exp. Matches | Golden Boot % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | Erling Haaland | Norway | 0.72 | 5.0 | |
| 🥈 | Harry Kane | England | 0.33 | 5.4 | |
| 🥉 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | 0.32 | 5.2 | |
| 4 | Mikel Oyarzabal | Spain | 0.30 | 5.3 | |
| 5 | Marko Arnautović | Austria | 0.29 | 4.5 | |
| 6 | Viktor Gyökeres | Sweden | 0.27 | 3.7 | |
| 7 | Memphis Depay | Netherlands | 0.27 | 4.9 | |
| 8 | Kylian Mbappé | France | 0.26 | 5.0 | |
| 9 | Mikel Merino | Spain | 0.24 | 5.3 | |
| 10 | Edin Džeko | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.23 | 4.0 |